Are you evaluating investing in ADITYABIRLAGRP THEME? Consider as it managed to marginally outperform the broader market

Aditya Birla Group managed to marginally outperform the broader market on Friday. It gained +0.68% to close at 1289.39. It is currently trading -32% below it's 52 week high of 1920.6.

[Theme constituents]

~ADITYABIRLAGRP showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~ADITYABIRLAGRP lost -10.93% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.39%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +8.48% to investors.

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Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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~ADITYABIRLAGRP has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~ADITYABIRLAGRP underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ~ADITYABIRLAGRP underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

~ADITYABIRLAGRP returned losses on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.18% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +4.15%, during this period, on Friday, 12 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -7.79% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +9.28% to investors.

~ADITYABIRLAGRP had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of ~ADITYABIRLAGRP and NIFTY-50 index were the same. ~ADITYABIRLAGRP was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -12.79% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~ADITYABIRLAGRP had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -26.04%. It is interesting to note that both ~ADITYABIRLAGRP and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Your net worth to the world is usually determined by what remains after your bad habits are subtracted from your good ones.

~ADITYABIRLAGRP is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~ADITYABIRLAGRP's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 12 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ADITYABIRLAGRP has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

~ADITYABIRLAGRP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~ADITYABIRLAGRP must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. ~ADITYABIRLAGRP usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~ADITYABIRLAGRP), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are NIFTY50-DIV-POINT and IEX. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to NIFTY50-DIV-POINT and IEX) and diversifying their portfolios.