Adani Group THEME

1765.12 +4.23 (+0.24%) Buy

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Don't go shopping for ADANIGRP THEME now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

Adani Group delivered massive losses on Friday. It increased by +0.24% to close at 1765.12. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 66% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.13%.

[Theme constituents]

~ADANIGRP showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~ADANIGRP increased by +21.75% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.3%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +27.31%.

Trend

~ADANIGRP has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 5 Jul, 2018 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~ADANIGRP outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~ADANIGRP was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +11.22%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.61%) was on Friday, 21 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +18.35% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ~ADANIGRP's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. During the last year, ~ADANIGRP delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~ADANIGRP significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +62.58% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ~ADANIGRP and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~ADANIGRP and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.
-- Thomas Edison

~ADANIGRP is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~ADANIGRP's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 10 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ADANIGRP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~ADANIGRP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~ADANIGRP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~ADANIGRP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~ADANIGRP must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. ~ADANIGRP usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

Based on your interest in ~ADANIGRP you may find it interesting to know that HINDUNILVR, BAJFINANCE and TCS are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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