288.7 -1.24 (-0.43%) Sell

VRLLOG continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED underperformed on Friday. It lost -0.43% to close at 288.7. It is currently trading -35% below it's 52 week high of 447.05.

[Themes containing VRLLOG]

VRLLOG is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +15.92%) for VRLLOG's investors than shorting it.


VRLLOG has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 12 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, VRLLOG underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days VRLLOG underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

VRLLOG returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.25% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.29%, during this period, on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +12.07% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 1 Jan, 2019 and ended on 9 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -5.0% of investor capital.

VRLLOG had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, VRLLOG underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. VRLLOG significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +20.55% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. VRLLOG had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -33.13%. It is interesting to note that both VRLLOG and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
-- Benjamin Franklin

VRLLOG is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in VRLLOG's volatility from 21 Nov, 2018 to 9 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VRLLOG has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect VRLLOG to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes VRLLOG a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VRLLOG. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than VRLLOG in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VRLLOG.

On a general note (since you are interested in VRLLOG), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are IGARASHI and VINATIORGA. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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