816.75 -7.68 (-0.94%) Sell

VBL continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

14 min read

VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED underperformed on Friday. It delivered -0.94% to close at 816.75. It is currently trading +36% above it's 52 week low of 599.3 and is down only 0% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing VBL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in VBL experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.14% over the last three months. It surged by +8.15% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.


VBL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 16 Mar, 2017 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 2 months and 10 days, VBL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days VBL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

VBL was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.14% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.1%, during this period, on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +3.09%) started on 3 Jan, 2019 and went on till 10 Jan, 2019 while the bearish trend (which returned -5.7%) started on 12 Dec, 2018 and went on till 19 Dec, 2018.

The last 12 months saw VBL's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. During the last year, VBL delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. VBL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in May 2018, when it returned +16.76% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. VBL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both VBL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is multiplied in practical value depending on the number of W's you control in your life: what you do, when you do it, where you do it, and with whom you do it.
-- Timothy Ferriss

VBL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in VBL's volatility from 5 Nov, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VBL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VBL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than VBL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VBL.

Based on your interest in VBL you may find it interesting to know that ~AGRICULTURE has delivered similar performance as VBL and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to VBL).

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