VBL continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

VARUN BEVERAGES LIMITED underperformed on Friday. It delivered -0.94% to close at 816.75. It is currently trading +36% above it's 52 week low of 599.3 and is down only 0% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing VBL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in VBL experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.14% over the last three months. It surged by +8.15% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

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Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Return distribution

VBL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 16 Mar, 2017 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 2 months and 10 days, VBL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days VBL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

VBL was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.14% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.1%, during this period, on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +3.09%) started on 3 Jan, 2019 and went on till 10 Jan, 2019 while the bearish trend (which returned -5.7%) started on 12 Dec, 2018 and went on till 19 Dec, 2018.

The last 12 months saw VBL's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. During the last year, VBL delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. VBL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in May 2018, when it returned +16.76% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. VBL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both VBL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is multiplied in practical value depending on the number of W's you control in your life: what you do, when you do it, where you do it, and with whom you do it.
-- Timothy Ferriss

VBL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in VBL's volatility from 5 Nov, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VBL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VBL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than VBL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VBL.

Based on your interest in VBL you may find it interesting to know that ~AGRICULTURE has delivered similar performance as VBL and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to VBL).