3819.95 -26.32 (-0.69%) Sell

Stop-loss on the minds of ULTRACEMCO investors as it underperforms

14 min read

ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED trailed the broader market today. It delivered -0.69% to close at 3819.95. During the last week it delivered +1.15% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.72% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing ULTRACEMCO]

ULTRACEMCO is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +5.83%) for ULTRACEMCO's investors than shorting it.


ULTRACEMCO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 9 May, 2017 to 23 Oct, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ULTRACEMCO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days ULTRACEMCO underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ULTRACEMCO was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.1% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.59%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.05%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +12.14% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ULTRACEMCO's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, ULTRACEMCO and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. ULTRACEMCO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +14.3% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ULTRACEMCO had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +20.03%. It is interesting to note that both ULTRACEMCO and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is multiplied in practical value depending on the number of W's you control in your life: what you do, when you do it, where you do it, and with whom you do it.
-- Timothy Ferriss

ULTRACEMCO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ULTRACEMCO's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 2 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ULTRACEMCO has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in ULTRACEMCO derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

ULTRACEMCO has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ULTRACEMCO must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ULTRACEMCO.

Based on your interest in ULTRACEMCO you may find it interesting to know that BOSCHLTD and ~HEALTHCARE have both performed similar to ULTRACEMCO and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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