TIMKEN INDIA LTD.

578.35 +2.16 (+0.37%) Buy

TIMKEN continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

13 min read

TIMKEN INDIA LTD. performed better than the broader market on Friday. It returned +0.37% to close at 578.35. It is currently trading -39% below it's 52 week high of 961.95.

[Themes containing TIMKEN]

TIMKEN is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +5.95%) for TIMKEN's investors than trading long signals.

Trend

TIMKEN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 12 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TIMKEN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months TIMKEN delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +8.63%) was on Thursday, 13 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.83%) was on Monday, 24 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -4.22% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Dec, 2018 and ended on 1 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +11.43% to investors.

TIMKEN had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of TIMKEN and NIFTY-50 index were the same. TIMKEN was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -13.28% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TIMKEN had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered +7.24%.

"You will never be a greater risk-taker in the markets if you approach life with a completely different attitude.

TIMKEN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TIMKEN's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TIMKEN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TIMKEN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TIMKEN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TIMKEN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TIMKEN.

On a general note (since you are interested in TIMKEN), if you are an investor in TIDEWATER, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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