THOMASCOOK continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

THOMASCOOK trailed the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in THOMAS COOK (INDIA) LTD made +0.08% per day. Friday's performance of -1.27% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in THOMASCOOK experienced a maximum drawdown of -6.34% over the last three months. It returned +13.72% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

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THOMASCOOK has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 2 Apr, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, THOMASCOOK underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months THOMASCOOK delivered losses on 53% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.75%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.51%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and went on till 19 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.08% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 5 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.47% of investor capital.

THOMASCOOK had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of THOMASCOOK and NIFTY-50 index were the same. THOMASCOOK significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +16.43% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. THOMASCOOK had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -35.04%.

"The road to economic well-being is to reward productive economic activity and to provide a moderate and predictable growth of money to finance real economic growth without reigniting the fires of inflation.

THOMASCOOK is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in THOMASCOOK's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that THOMASCOOK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that THOMASCOOK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than THOMASCOOK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than THOMASCOOK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than THOMASCOOK.

On a general note (since you are interested in THOMASCOOK), if you are evaluating THOMASCOOK as an investment candidate, then you should read about BATAINDIA which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.