THERMAX shows sign of weakness as investors do cost averaging

THERMAX is looking better than most other alternatives today. On a longer term basis, investors in THERMAX LTD made +0.03% per day. Friday's performance of +0.12% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in THERMAX experienced a maximum drawdown of -8.54% over the last three months. It grew by +9.92% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

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THERMAX has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 9 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, THERMAX underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months THERMAX delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +7.76%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.27%) was on Wednesday, 16 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 14 Nov, 2018 and went on till 22 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -7.92% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.86% to investors.

On monthly basis, THERMAX delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. THERMAX delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. THERMAX significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +12.83% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. THERMAX had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +17.41%. It is interesting to note that both THERMAX and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I made my money the old-fashioned way. I was very nice to a wealthy relative right before he died.
-- Malcolm Forbes

THERMAX is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in THERMAX's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 28 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that THERMAX has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that THERMAX is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

THERMAX has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, THERMAX must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than THERMAX.

On a general note (since you are interested in THERMAX), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are INFY and TCS. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.