THERMAX LTD

1080.5 +1.25 (+0.12%) Sell

THERMAX shows sign of weakness as investors do cost averaging

13 min read

THERMAX is looking better than most other alternatives today. On a longer term basis, investors in THERMAX LTD made +0.03% per day. Friday's performance of +0.12% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing THERMAX]

Buy-and-Hold investors in THERMAX experienced a maximum drawdown of -8.54% over the last three months. It grew by +9.92% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

THERMAX has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 9 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, THERMAX underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months THERMAX delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +7.76%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.27%) was on Wednesday, 16 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 14 Nov, 2018 and went on till 22 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -7.92% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.86% to investors.

On monthly basis, THERMAX delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. THERMAX delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. THERMAX significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +12.83% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. THERMAX had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +17.41%. It is interesting to note that both THERMAX and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I made my money the old-fashioned way. I was very nice to a wealthy relative right before he died.
-- Malcolm Forbes

THERMAX is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in THERMAX's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 28 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that THERMAX has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that THERMAX is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

THERMAX has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, THERMAX must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than THERMAX.

On a general note (since you are interested in THERMAX), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are INFY and TCS. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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