Want to invest in TFCILTD? Wait as it trailed the broader market

TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF trailed the broader market on Tuesday. It returned -1.55% to close at 136.65. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 88% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

[Themes containing TFCILTD]

TFCILTD showed a strong up trend over the last 3 months. During this period TFCILTD gained +10.02% and saw a maximum drawdown of -7.85%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +6.47% to investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

TFCILTD has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TFCILTD outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days TFCILTD outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

TFCILTD returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.16% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +8.66%, during this period, on Friday, 18 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 6 Nov, 2018 and went on till 13 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.84% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Dec, 2018 and ended on 20 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.51% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, TFCILTD delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. TFCILTD delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. TFCILTD was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -17.72% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TFCILTD and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both TFCILTD and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The habit of saving is itself an education; it fosters every virtue, teaches self-denial, cultivates the sense of order, trains to forethought, and so broadens the mind.
-- T.T. Munger

TFCILTD is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TFCILTD's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TFCILTD has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TFCILTD is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TFCILTD. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TFCILTD in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TFCILTD.

Based on your interest in TFCILTD you may find it interesting to know that NIFTY50-DIV-POINT, IGARASHI and TIDEWATER are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.