THE STATE TRADING CORPN

128.85 -1.53 (-1.19%) Sell

Search for alternative investments is on for STCINDIA investors as it underperforms broader market

14 min read

THE STATE TRADING CORPN underperformed on Friday. It fell by -1.19% to close at 128.85. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 35% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing STCINDIA]

Buy-and-Hold investors in STCINDIA experienced a maximum drawdown of -15.09% over the last three months. It increased by +15.56% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +16.84%.

Trend

STCINDIA has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 9 Jan, 2017 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, STCINDIA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

During the last three months STCINDIA delivered losses on 57% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +11.41%) was on Monday, 17 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.88%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +11.33%) started on 31 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -6.56%) started on 14 Nov, 2018 and went on till 19 Nov, 2018.

During the last year STCINDIA had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. Profitable number of months of STCINDIA and NIFTY-50 index were the same. STCINDIA significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +27.42% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. STCINDIA had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +41.26%. It is interesting to note that both STCINDIA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

STCINDIA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in STCINDIA's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 4 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that STCINDIA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that STCINDIA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than STCINDIA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than STCINDIA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than STCINDIA.

Based on your interest in STCINDIA you may find it interesting to know that LTI, HATSUN and CUB are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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