RTNPOWER investors herd to book profits while the going is good

RATTANINDIA POWER LIMITED is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It delivered -2.7% to close at 3.6. It is currently trading -55% below it's 52 week high of 8.1.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in RTNPOWER experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.0% over the last three months. It increased by +18.03% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +4.35%.

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RTNPOWER has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 11 Jan, 2016 to 28 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, RTNPOWER underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.

During the last three months RTNPOWER delivered losses on 68% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +15.94%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.25%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 11 profitable days, which started on 27 Dec, 2018 and went on till 10 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend returned +10.4% to investors.

The last 12 months saw RTNPOWER's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. RTNPOWER was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. RTNPOWER significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +20.97% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. RTNPOWER had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -67.66%. It is interesting to note that both RTNPOWER and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I will never be in the stock market. It's just gambling. I'm a gambler, but I'll gamble on the practicality of things.
-- Jeremy Renner

RTNPOWER is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in RTNPOWER's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 8 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RTNPOWER has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that RTNPOWER is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RTNPOWER. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than RTNPOWER in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RTNPOWER.

Based on your interest in RTNPOWER you may find it interesting to know that IGARASHI, SPLIL and HATSUN have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.