REPCOHOME investors herd to book profits while the going is good

REPCOHOME is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in REPCO HOME FINANCE LTD made +0.02% per day. Friday's performance of -3.25% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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REPCOHOME showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period REPCOHOME increased by +37.14% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.81%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +2.84%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

REPCOHOME has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 16 Sep, 2016 to 29 Nov, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, REPCOHOME underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months REPCOHOME was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.55% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.4%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.02%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 18 Dec, 2018 and went on till 26 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +14.31% to investors.

The last 12 months saw REPCOHOME's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. REPCOHOME was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. REPCOHOME was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -20.67% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. REPCOHOME had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -43.69%. It is interesting to note that both REPCOHOME and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

To beat the market you'll have to invest serious bucks to dig up information no one else has yet.
-- Merton Miller

REPCOHOME is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in REPCOHOME's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that REPCOHOME has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect REPCOHOME to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes REPCOHOME a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

Investors trading in REPCOHOME derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

REPCOHOME has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, REPCOHOME must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than REPCOHOME.

Based on your interest in REPCOHOME you may find it interesting to know that LTI has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.