RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTU LTD

298.3 +1.86 (+0.62%) Buy

RELINFRA continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

17 min read

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTU LTD showed marginal outperformance today. It increased by +0.62% to close at 298.3. It's recent 5 day performance has been -5.65%, +1.32%, +1.24%, -0.46% and +0.57%.

[Themes containing RELINFRA]

RELINFRA is currently in a bullish trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning -10.35%) for RELINFRA's investors than trading long signals.

Trend

RELINFRA has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 5 Jan, 2016 to 17 Dec, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, RELINFRA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days RELINFRA underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months RELINFRA delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +6.97%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.58%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 18 Dec, 2018 and went on till 21 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.59% to investors.

During the last year RELINFRA had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. RELINFRA returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. RELINFRA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -35.92% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. RELINFRA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -17.85%. It is interesting to note that both RELINFRA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

My old father used to have a saying: If you make a bad bargain, hug it all the tighter.
-- Abraham Lincoln

RELINFRA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in RELINFRA's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RELINFRA has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RELINFRA to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RELINFRA a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in RELINFRA derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Put' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

RELINFRA has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, RELINFRA must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RELINFRA.

Based on your interest in RELINFRA you may find it interesting to know that HUBTOWN, DISHTV and SIMPLEXINF have all performed similar to RELINFRA and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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