PNBGILTS investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath

PNBGILTS underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in PNB GILTS LIMITED made +0.11% per day. Friday's performance of -0.16% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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PNBGILTS showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period PNBGILTS surged by +17.47% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.61%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +17.47%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

PNBGILTS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 6 Feb, 2017 to 20 Jul, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, PNBGILTS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 43% days. Which indicates that on days PNBGILTS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

PNBGILTS returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.28% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.27%, during this period, on Thursday, 13 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 1 Jan, 2019 and ended on 7 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -3.86% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw PNBGILTS's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, PNBGILTS and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. PNBGILTS significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +15.69% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. PNBGILTS had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +31.26%. It is interesting to note that both PNBGILTS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There is a huge amount of freedom that is derived from not fighting the market.

PNBGILTS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PNBGILTS's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PNBGILTS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that PNBGILTS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PNBGILTS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than PNBGILTS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PNBGILTS.

Based on your interest in PNBGILTS you may find it interesting to know that ~HOMEAPPLIANCES is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to ~HOMEAPPLIANCES or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.