PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK was among the worst performers today. It delivered -2.01% to close at 82.85. During the last week it delivered +0.42% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.01% before bouncing back.
PNB is currently in a bullish trend. Over the last three months 2 bullish signals in PNB have generated a profit of +11.82% for investors.
PNB has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 26 Oct, 2017 to 28 Sep, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, PNB underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months PNB was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.39% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.18%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.07%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 19 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +17.44% to investors.
The last 12 months saw PNB's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, PNB and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. PNB was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -40.82% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. PNB had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -69.06%. It is interesting to note that both PNB and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
A highly developed stock exchange cannot be a club for the cult of ethics.
-- Max Weber
PNB is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in PNB's volatility from 2 Nov, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PNB has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that PNB is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
Investors trading in PNB derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PNB. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than PNB in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PNB.
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