Don't go shopping for PGHH now, it is underperforming the market
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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PGHH trailed the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in P&G HYGIENE & HEALTH CARE made +0.09% per day. Friday's performance of -0.35% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
PGHH showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period PGHH delivered +9.64% . There was a long signal during this period which returned +5.41%.
PGHH has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Jan, 2016 to 13 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, PGHH outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.
During the last three months PGHH was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.15% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.43%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.27%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 7 Jan, 2019 and went on till 14 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend returned +2.19% to investors.
The last 12 months saw PGHH's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, PGHH delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. PGHH significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +6.73% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. PGHH had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered +4.6%.
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PGHH is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in PGHH's volatility from 7 Nov, 2018 to 7 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PGHH has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PGHH. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than PGHH in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PGHH.
Based on your interest in PGHH you may find it interesting to know that NIFTY50-DIV-POINT, ~HOMEAPPLIANCES and HATSUN are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.
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