ORACLE FIN SERV SOFT LTD. was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -2.13% to close at 3615.85. It is currently trading -19% below it's 52 week high of 4489.7.
Buy-and-Hold investors in OFSS experienced a maximum drawdown of -10.8% over the last three months. It fell by -5.03% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +5.99%.
OFSS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 2 Feb, 2016 to 29 Nov, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, OFSS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.
During the last three months OFSS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.07% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.81%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.24%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.27%) started on 4 Dec, 2018 and went on till 7 Dec, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -5.79%) started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018.
During the last year OFSS had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. OFSS returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. OFSS significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +10.99% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. OFSS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -20.53%. It is interesting to note that both OFSS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Financial support is one thing, but I always think what becomes really sacrificial is your time.
-- Cliff Richard
OFSS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in OFSS's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OFSS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that OFSS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
Investors trading in OFSS derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
OFSS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, OFSS must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OFSS.
Based on your interest in OFSS you may find it interesting to know that INFY is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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