NUCLEUS SOFTWARE EXPORTS

368.6 -2.53 (-0.69%) Sell

NUCLEUS investors treading cautiously as performance is muted

13 min read

NUCLEUS SOFTWARE EXPORTS trailed the broader market on Friday. It returned -0.69% to close at 368.6. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 71% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing NUCLEUS]

NUCLEUS is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for NUCLEUS's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned +3.12%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to NUCLEUS.

Trend

NUCLEUS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, NUCLEUS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days NUCLEUS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months NUCLEUS delivered losses on 55% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.94%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.02%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 31 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.18% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.54% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, NUCLEUS delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. NUCLEUS delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. NUCLEUS significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +32.2% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. NUCLEUS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -28.56%. It is interesting to note that both NUCLEUS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"I'm involved in the stock market, which is fun and, sometimes, very painful.

NUCLEUS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NUCLEUS's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 9 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NUCLEUS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that NUCLEUS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NUCLEUS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than NUCLEUS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NUCLEUS.

On a general note (since you are interested in NUCLEUS), IGARASHI is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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