NELCAST LIMITED is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It delivered -1.41% to close at 80.65. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 79% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in NELCAST experienced a maximum drawdown of -15.44% over the last three months. It increased by +13.43% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +4.71%.
NELCAST has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 31 Jan, 2017 to 5 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, NELCAST underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months NELCAST delivered losses on 62% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +16.06%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.16%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.32% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw NELCAST's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. During the last year, NELCAST delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. NELCAST significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +14.82% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. NELCAST had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Mar 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered +5.5%. It is interesting to note that both NELCAST and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.
-- Mahatma Gandhi
NELCAST is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NELCAST's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NELCAST has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that NELCAST is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NELCAST. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than NELCAST in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NELCAST.
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