Don't consider buying NAVNETEDUL now, it is risky at the moment
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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NAVNEET EDUCATION LTD showed weakness today. It lost -0.18% to close at 108.8. It's recent 5 day performance has been 0.0%, -0.14%, -0.05%, -0.09% and +0.05%.
[Themes containing NAVNETEDUL]
NAVNETEDUL showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period NAVNETEDUL gained +5.38% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.42%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in NAVNETEDUL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
NAVNETEDUL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, NAVNETEDUL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.
NAVNETEDUL returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.09% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.86%, during this period, on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 20 Dec, 2018 and went on till 27 Dec, 2018. The trend delivered -5.2% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Jan, 2019 and ended on 7 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +3.29% to investors.
NAVNETEDUL had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, NAVNETEDUL underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. NAVNETEDUL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +23.33% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. NAVNETEDUL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -26.47%. It is interesting to note that both NAVNETEDUL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"I made my money by selling too soon.
NAVNETEDUL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NAVNETEDUL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NAVNETEDUL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that NAVNETEDUL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NAVNETEDUL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than NAVNETEDUL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NAVNETEDUL.
On a general note (since you are interested in NAVNETEDUL), two instruments that deserve special mention are ~CHEMICALS and ~MKTCAP201TO250. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.
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