NATIONALUM investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath

NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD performed worse than the broader market on Friday. It lost -0.57% to close at 61.45. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 76% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing NATIONALUM]

NATIONALUM is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in NATIONALUM has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in NATIONALUM at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

NATIONALUM has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 31 Oct, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, NATIONALUM outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days NATIONALUM outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

NATIONALUM returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.12% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.55%, during this period, on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 19 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +0.37% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 16 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.61% of investor capital.

NATIONALUM had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, NATIONALUM underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. NATIONALUM significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +23.62% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. NATIONALUM had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -21.8%. It is interesting to note that both NATIONALUM and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks others have thrown at him.
-- David Brinkley

NATIONALUM is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NATIONALUM's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NATIONALUM has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in NATIONALUM derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NATIONALUM has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, NATIONALUM must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NATIONALUM.

On a general note (since you are interested in NATIONALUM), BRITANNIA is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.