Joy for MOLDTKPAC investors as it outperforms broader market

MOLD-TEK PACKAGING LTD outperformed the broader market on Tuesday. It increased by +2.83% to close at 265.4. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 82% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

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MOLDTKPAC is currently in a bullish trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +0.99%) for MOLDTKPAC's investors than trading long signals.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

MOLDTKPAC has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 26 Feb, 2016 to 22 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, MOLDTKPAC outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days MOLDTKPAC outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months MOLDTKPAC delivered losses on 53% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.36%) was on Wednesday, 26 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.95%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 13 Dec, 2018 and ended on 24 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.35% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw MOLDTKPAC's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. MOLDTKPAC was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. MOLDTKPAC was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -9.72% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. MOLDTKPAC had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -10.12%. It is interesting to note that both MOLDTKPAC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Some people dream of success, while other people get up every morning and make it happen.
-- Wayne Huizenga

MOLDTKPAC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MOLDTKPAC's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 21 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MOLDTKPAC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

MOLDTKPAC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, MOLDTKPAC must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MOLDTKPAC.

On a general note (since you are interested in MOLDTKPAC), three instruments that are extremely volatile are ~HOMEAPPLIANCES, IGARASHI and NIFTY50-DIV-POINT. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.