MBLINFRA continues its fall as more investors loose confidence
22 Jan, 201913 min read
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MBL INFRASTRUCTURES LTD trailed the broader market on Tuesday. It lost -1.08% to close at 13.7. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 5% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in MBLINFRA experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.33% over the last three months. It lost -3.18% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.
MBLINFRA has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, MBLINFRA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.
During the last three months MBLINFRA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.03% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.73%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.69%) was on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and went on till 15 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +15.94% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 21 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.66% of investor capital.
MBLINFRA had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MBLINFRA underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. MBLINFRA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -17.95% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. MBLINFRA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -25.23%. It is interesting to note that both MBLINFRA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"Finance is wholly different from the rest the economy.
MBLINFRA is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MBLINFRA's volatility from 15 Nov, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MBLINFRA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that MBLINFRA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
MBLINFRA has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, MBLINFRA must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MBLINFRA.
Based on your interest in MBLINFRA you may find it interesting to know that IGARASHI, NIITTECH and VINATIORGA are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.
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