Want to invest in MAYURUNIQ? Avoid as it is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it
23 Jan, 201913 min read
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MAYUR UNIQUOTERS LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Wednesday. It returned -2.32% to close at 384.55. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 32% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0084%.
MAYURUNIQ showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period MAYURUNIQ gained +4.63% . It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in MAYURUNIQ till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
MAYURUNIQ has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 2 Feb, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, MAYURUNIQ underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.
MAYURUNIQ returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.08% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.07%, during this period, on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 15 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +7.68% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Jan, 2019 and ended on 17 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -0.59% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, MAYURUNIQ delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. MAYURUNIQ delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. MAYURUNIQ significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +11.69% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. MAYURUNIQ and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both MAYURUNIQ and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Don't always trust what you see. In a bull market even a duck looks like a swan.
-- Vijay Kedia
MAYURUNIQ is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MAYURUNIQ's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MAYURUNIQ has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MAYURUNIQ to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MAYURUNIQ a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.
MAYURUNIQ has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, MAYURUNIQ must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MAYURUNIQ.
On a general note (since you are interested in MAYURUNIQ), if you are an investor in ~HOMEAPPLIANCES, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.
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