Don't even consider investing in MARKSANS now, it is a risky investment

MARKSANS PHARMA LIMITED is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It lost -1.79% to close at 27.45. It is currently trading -41% below it's 52 week high of 46.9.

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MARKSANS showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period MARKSANS lost -4.85% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.88%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in MARKSANS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

MARKSANS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, MARKSANS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months MARKSANS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.3%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.2%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 27 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.58% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 28 Nov, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.29% of investor capital.

MARKSANS had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MARKSANS underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. MARKSANS significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +34.58% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. MARKSANS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -45.95%. It is interesting to note that both MARKSANS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
-- Thomas Edison

MARKSANS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MARKSANS's volatility from 13 Nov, 2018 to 4 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MARKSANS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that MARKSANS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MARKSANS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than MARKSANS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MARKSANS.

On a general note (since you are interested in MARKSANS), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are IGARASHI and TIDEWATER. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to IGARASHI and TIDEWATER) and diversifying their portfolios.