MANINFRA is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
22 Jan, 201913 min read
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MAN INFRA LTD delivered massive losses on Tuesday. It fell by -2.54% to close at 36.45. It is currently trading -46% below it's 52 week high of 68.09.
MANINFRA showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period MANINFRA fell by -4.08% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.55%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in MANINFRA till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
MANINFRA has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 26 Dec, 2017 to 22 Jan, 2019. One must note that MANINFRA is currently at it's worst performance to the NIFTY-50 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, MANINFRA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months MANINFRA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.05%) was on Friday, 28 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.45%) was on Monday, 24 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and ended on 22 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.21% of investor capital.
During the last year MANINFRA had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. MANINFRA returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. MANINFRA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -15.72% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. MANINFRA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -20.12%. It is interesting to note that both MANINFRA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
If we command our wealth, we shall be rich and free. If our wealth commands us, we are poor indeed.
-- Edmund Burke
MANINFRA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MANINFRA's volatility from 9 Nov, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MANINFRA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that MANINFRA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MANINFRA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than MANINFRA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MANINFRA.
On a general note (since you are interested in MANINFRA), if you are an investor in TIDEWATER, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.
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