LINCOLN PHARMA LTD

207.3 -4.02 (-1.94%) Sell

LINCOLN investors dump it for better alternatives

14 min read

LINCOLN PHARMA LTD has destroyed investor wealth today. It lost -1.94% to close at 207.3. During the last week it lost -5.79% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.79%.

[Themes containing LINCOLN]

LINCOLN is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for LINCOLN's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -4.58%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to LINCOLN.

Trend

LINCOLN has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, LINCOLN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months LINCOLN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.04% per day. It's best return during this period (of +10.32%) was on Tuesday, 27 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.73%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +13.54% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 29 Nov, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.73% of investor capital.

LINCOLN had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. LINCOLN was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. LINCOLN significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +20.0% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. LINCOLN had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -19.04%. It is interesting to note that both LINCOLN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy.
-- Warren Buffett

LINCOLN is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in LINCOLN's volatility from 5 Nov, 2018 to 8 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that LINCOLN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that LINCOLN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than LINCOLN. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than LINCOLN in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than LINCOLN.

On a general note (since you are interested in LINCOLN), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as LINCOLN are NFL and PNBHOUSING. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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