557.2 -13.75 (-2.47%) Sell

KSCL is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

KAVERI SEED CO. LTD. ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It returned -2.47% to close at 557.2. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 36% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

[Themes containing KSCL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in KSCL experienced a maximum drawdown of -9.9% over the last three months. It gained +19.44% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.32%.


KSCL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Aug, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, KSCL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days KSCL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

KSCL returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.31% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.87%, during this period, on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 7 Dec, 2018 and went on till 13 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +16.52% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 2 Jan, 2019 and ended on 8 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -6.87% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, KSCL delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. KSCL delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. KSCL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +12.28% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. KSCL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 5 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +29.93%. It is interesting to note that both KSCL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Greed is not a financial issue. It's a heart issue.
-- Andy Stanley

KSCL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in KSCL's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that KSCL has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect KSCL to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes KSCL a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

Investors trading in KSCL derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

KSCL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, KSCL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than KSCL.

Based on your interest in KSCL you may find it interesting to know that NIITTECH is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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