KANSAI NEROLAC PAINTS LTD

455.8 +6.23 (+1.37%) Sell

KANSAINER does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

KANSAI NEROLAC PAINTS LTD ranked among the best performers on Friday. It delivered +1.37% to close at 455.8. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 71% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing KANSAINER]

Buy-and-Hold investors in KANSAINER experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.92% over the last three months. It delivered +9.48% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.87%.

Trend

KANSAINER has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Jan, 2016 to 29 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, KANSAINER outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days KANSAINER outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months KANSAINER delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +6.92%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.13%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 4 Jan, 2019 and ended on 14 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -8.9% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw KANSAINER's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, KANSAINER and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. KANSAINER significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +20.88% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. KANSAINER had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -11.98%.

I always said that if I wasn't studying psychopaths in prison, I'd do it at the stock exchange.
-- Robert D. Hare

KANSAINER is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in KANSAINER's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 22 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that KANSAINER has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

KANSAINER has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, KANSAINER must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than KANSAINER.

Based on your interest in KANSAINER you may find it interesting to know that LTI is a mid cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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