120.15 -4.48 (-3.73%) Buy

JOCIL investors herd to book profits while the going is good

14 min read

JOCIL LIMITED ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -3.73% to close at 120.15. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.2%, +1.63%, +1.57%, -4.72% and +4.82%.

[Themes containing JOCIL]

JOCIL showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period JOCIL returned -3.03% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.01%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in JOCIL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


JOCIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, JOCIL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 52% days.

During the last three months JOCIL delivered profits on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +5.0%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.08%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 29 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.49% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 5 Dec, 2018 and ended on 7 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.98% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, JOCIL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. JOCIL delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. JOCIL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -13.49% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. JOCIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -26.19%. It is interesting to note that both JOCIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it .
-- Peter Lynch

JOCIL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in JOCIL's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 29 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that JOCIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that JOCIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than JOCIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than JOCIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than JOCIL.

On a general note (since you are interested in JOCIL), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as JOCIL are RESPONIND and RANEENGINE. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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