Are you evaluating investing in IOC? Consider as it is looking better than most other alternatives

INDIAN OIL CORP LTD is looking better than most other alternatives on Friday. It grew by +0.15% to close at 137.85. It is currently trading -29% below it's 52 week high of 195.18.

[Themes containing IOC]

IOC showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period IOC grew by +9.06% and saw a maximum drawdown of -13.07%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in IOC till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

IOC has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IOC outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days IOC outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months IOC was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.13%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.62%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Dec, 2018 and went on till 20 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +12.09% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 21 Dec, 2018 and ended on 27 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.18% of investor capital.

IOC had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, IOC underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. IOC was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -10.95% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. IOC had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -19.3%. It is interesting to note that both IOC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you do chose to invest in a share, invest for the lifetime.
-- Sandeep Sahajpal

IOC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IOC's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IOC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect IOC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes IOC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in IOC derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

IOC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, IOC must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IOC.

On a general note (since you are interested in IOC), BAJFINANCE has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.