211.45 -2.28 (-1.08%) Sell

INTELLECT continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

INTELLECT DESIGN ARENA performed worse than the broader market on Tuesday. It returned -1.08% to close at 211.45. It is currently trading -23% below it's 52 week high of 276.0.

[Themes containing INTELLECT]

Buy-and-Hold investors in INTELLECT experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.03% over the last three months. It returned +8.02% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +0.52%.


INTELLECT has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, INTELLECT underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months INTELLECT delivered losses on 62% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +12.42%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.12%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 23 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +28.78% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.28% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, INTELLECT delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. INTELLECT delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. INTELLECT significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +31.4% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. INTELLECT had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -16.59%. It is interesting to note that both INTELLECT and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Money is like manure. You have to spread it around or it smells.

INTELLECT is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in INTELLECT's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that INTELLECT has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that INTELLECT is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

INTELLECT has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, INTELLECT must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than INTELLECT.

Based on your interest in INTELLECT you may find it interesting to know that HINDUNILVR and INFY are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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