INTERGLOBE AVIATION LTD

1076.0 -35.68 (-3.32%) Sell

Stop-loss on the minds of INDIGO investors as it ranked among the worst performers

14 min read

INDIGO significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in INTERGLOBE AVIATION LTD made +0.07% per day. Friday's performance of -3.32% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing INDIGO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in INDIGO experienced a maximum drawdown of -10.27% over the last three months. It grew by +29.38% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +12.39%.

Trend

INDIGO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, INDIGO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.

During the last three months INDIGO was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.44% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.54%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.34%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 18 Dec, 2018 and went on till 24 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.3% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 2 Jan, 2019 and ended on 11 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -9.62% of investor capital.

INDIGO had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. INDIGO was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. INDIGO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +16.8% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. INDIGO had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +39.21%. It is interesting to note that both INDIGO and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record. It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.
-- Charlie Munger

INDIGO is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in INDIGO's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 10 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that INDIGO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect INDIGO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes INDIGO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in INDIGO derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than INDIGO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than INDIGO in your portfolio. INDIGO usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in INDIGO), three instruments that deserve special mention are RESPONIND, LTI and NIITTECH. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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