INDIANB investors herd to book profits while the going is good

INDIAN BANK was among the worst performers on Friday. It returned -5.46% to close at 245.95. It is currently trading -38% below it's 52 week high of 397.1.

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INDIANB is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in INDIANB has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in INDIANB at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

INDIANB has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, INDIANB outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days INDIANB outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months INDIANB was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.59%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -12.29%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +18.81% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 6 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.05% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, INDIANB delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. INDIANB delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. INDIANB was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -31.6% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. INDIANB had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered +20.17%. It is interesting to note that both INDIANB and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Here's my gift-giving rule: Respect your current financial situation.
-- Suze Orman

INDIANB is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in INDIANB's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that INDIANB has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that INDIANB is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

Investors trading in INDIANB derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Straddle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than INDIANB. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than INDIANB in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than INDIANB.

On a general note (since you are interested in INDIANB), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are HATSUN, CUB and LTTS. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.