THE INDIA CEMENTS LIMITED delivered lacklustre performance on Friday. It returned -1.28% to close at 85.0. It is currently trading -57% below it's 52 week high of 200.6.
INDIACEM is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for INDIACEM's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -5.03%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to INDIACEM.
INDIACEM has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 15 May, 2017. INDIACEM is currently at it's worst performance to the NIFTY-50 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, INDIACEM underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
INDIACEM returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.05% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.23%, during this period, on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +16.66% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 7 Jan, 2019 and ended on 14 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -7.67% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, INDIACEM delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. INDIACEM delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. INDIACEM was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -19.43% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. INDIACEM had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -50.55%. It is interesting to note that both INDIACEM and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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INDIACEM is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in INDIACEM's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that INDIACEM has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect INDIACEM to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes INDIACEM a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
Investors trading in INDIACEM derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
INDIACEM has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, INDIACEM must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than INDIACEM.
On a general note (since you are interested in INDIACEM), BATAINDIA is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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