I G PETROCHEMICALS LTD

397.85 -3.37 (-0.85%) Sell

Stop-loss on the minds of IGPL investors as it ranked worse than it's peers

13 min read

I G PETROCHEMICALS LTD showed weakness on Friday. It lost -0.85% to close at 397.85. It is currently trading -51% below it's 52 week high of 825.5.

[Themes containing IGPL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in IGPL experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.3% over the last three months. It lost -1.16% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +0.55%.

Trend

IGPL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 15 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, IGPL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days IGPL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months IGPL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.0% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.94%) was on Monday, 14 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.78%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +13.43% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 6 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.4% of investor capital.

IGPL had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, IGPL underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. IGPL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -21.83% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. IGPL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -46.42%. It is interesting to note that both IGPL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic.

IGPL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in IGPL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 7 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IGPL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IGPL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

IGPL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, IGPL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IGPL.

On a general note (since you are interested in IGPL), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are IEX and NIFTY50-DIV-POINT. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to IEX and NIFTY50-DIV-POINT) and diversifying their portfolios.

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