Don't even consider investing in ICIL now, it is a high risk investment
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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ICIL is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTD made +0.14% per day. Friday's performance of -2.02% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
ICIL showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ICIL delivered -21.34% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.58%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +21.34%.
ICIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 5 Feb, 2016 to 29 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ICIL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.
During the last three months ICIL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.01%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.67%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.0% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw ICIL's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. ICIL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. ICIL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +35.82% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ICIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -22.87%. It is interesting to note that both ICIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The only way to beat an index is to invest in something other than the index. Why would you, when the only source of long-term risk and return data is the index ?
-- Hebner, Mark.
ICIL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ICIL's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 3 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ICIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ICIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ICIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ICIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ICIL.
Based on your interest in ICIL you may find it interesting to know that LTI and BATAINDIA are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.
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