ICIL is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTD made +0.14% per day. Friday's performance of -2.02% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
ICIL showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ICIL delivered -21.34% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.58%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +21.34%.
ICIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 5 Feb, 2016 to 29 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ICIL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.
During the last three months ICIL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.01%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.67%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.0% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw ICIL's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. ICIL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. ICIL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +35.82% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ICIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -22.87%. It is interesting to note that both ICIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The only way to beat an index is to invest in something other than the index. Why would you, when the only source of long-term risk and return data is the index ?
-- Hebner, Mark.
ICIL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ICIL's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 3 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ICIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ICIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ICIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ICIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ICIL.
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