ICICI PRU LIFE INS CO LTD

345.0 -6.52 (-1.89%) Buy

Don't consider investing in ICICIPRULI now, it is risky at the moment

13 min read

ICICIPRULI delivered massive losses today. On a longer term basis, investors in ICICI PRU LIFE INS CO LTD made +0.05% per day. Tuesday's performance of -1.89% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ICICIPRULI]

ICICIPRULI showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period ICICIPRULI grew by +7.06% and saw a maximum drawdown of -14.8%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ICICIPRULI till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

ICICIPRULI has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years and 4 months, ICICIPRULI underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ICICIPRULI was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.13% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.62%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.09%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 31 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.87% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 6 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.33% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ICICIPRULI delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ICICIPRULI delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ICICIPRULI significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +11.9% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ICICIPRULI and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both ICICIPRULI and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Don't tell me where your priorities are. Show me where you spend your money and I'll tell you what they are.
-- James W. Frick

ICICIPRULI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ICICIPRULI's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 3 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ICICIPRULI has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ICICIPRULI is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

Investors trading in ICICIPRULI derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

ICICIPRULI has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ICICIPRULI must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ICICIPRULI.

Based on your interest in ICICIPRULI you may find it interesting to know that VINATIORGA has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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