HINDCOPPER is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD significantly underperformed today. It returned -1.4% to close at 49.15. During the last week it returned -0.41% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.9% before bouncing back.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in HINDCOPPER experienced a maximum drawdown of -13.83% over the last three months. It grew by +2.5% during this up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

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HINDCOPPER has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Nov, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HINDCOPPER underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.

During the last three months HINDCOPPER delivered losses on 58% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +6.24%) was on Monday, 17 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.57%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.68% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.01% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, HINDCOPPER delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. HINDCOPPER delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. HINDCOPPER was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -18.73% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. HINDCOPPER had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -16.68%. It is interesting to note that both HINDCOPPER and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Everything is always feasible if you run a corporate finance exercise: you can always try to come out with a justification on how things could work. But the real issue is to say how do you translate that into practice.

HINDCOPPER is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in HINDCOPPER's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HINDCOPPER has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HINDCOPPER is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HINDCOPPER. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HINDCOPPER in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HINDCOPPER.

On a general note (since you are interested in HINDCOPPER), IGARASHI is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.