HIMATSEIDE does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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HIMATSINGKA SEIDE LTD outperformed the broader market on Friday. It increased by +0.9% to close at 212.3. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 79% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
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HIMATSEIDE showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period HIMATSEIDE fell by -9.72% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.27%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +9.72%.
HIMATSEIDE has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 10 Feb, 2017 to 20 Dec, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HIMATSEIDE underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.
During the last three months HIMATSEIDE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.15% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.29%) was on Friday, 21 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.52%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.7% of investor capital.
During the last year HIMATSEIDE had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. HIMATSEIDE returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. HIMATSEIDE was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -23.46% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. HIMATSEIDE had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -10.5%. It is interesting to note that both HIMATSEIDE and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
-- Phillip Fisher
HIMATSEIDE is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in HIMATSEIDE's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 19 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HIMATSEIDE has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HIMATSEIDE is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HIMATSEIDE. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HIMATSEIDE in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HIMATSEIDE.
Based on your interest in HIMATSEIDE you may find it interesting to know that BRITANNIA is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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