HILTON is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

HILTON METAL FORGING LTD has destroyed investor wealth on Wednesday. It returned -2.43% to close at 20.1. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 68% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0084%.

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HILTON showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period HILTON returned -14.47% and saw a maximum drawdown of -15.01%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in HILTON till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

HILTON has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 20 Jul, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, HILTON underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

HILTON returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.23% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.89%, during this period, on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and went on till 14 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -4.79% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 7 Jan, 2019 and ended on 10 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered 0.0% to investors.

On monthly basis, HILTON delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. HILTON delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. HILTON significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +26.22% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. HILTON had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -42.76%. It is interesting to note that both HILTON and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Finance is not merely about making money. It's about achieving our deep goals and protecting the fruits of our labor. It's about stewardship and, therefore, about achieving the good society.
-- Robert J. Shiller

HILTON is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HILTON's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 12 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HILTON has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HILTON is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HILTON. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than HILTON in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HILTON.

On a general note (since you are interested in HILTON), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as HILTON are PATSPINLTD and PATINTLOG. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.