Are you evaluating investing in GUFICBIO? Avoid as it significantly underperformed

GUFIC BIOSCIENCES LTD. significantly underperformed on Wednesday. It lost -1.61% to close at 85.6. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 92% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0084%.

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GUFICBIO showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period GUFICBIO lost -8.64% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.25%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in GUFICBIO till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

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GUFICBIO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 9 May, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GUFICBIO outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 43% days. Which indicates that on days GUFICBIO outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

GUFICBIO returned losses on 64% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.12% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +8.19%, during this period, on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Nov, 2018 and went on till 5 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.75% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Jan, 2019 and ended on 23 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -7.75% of investor capital.

GUFICBIO had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, GUFICBIO underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. GUFICBIO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +24.98% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. GUFICBIO had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -14.7%. It is interesting to note that both GUFICBIO and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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GUFICBIO is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GUFICBIO's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GUFICBIO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GUFICBIO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GUFICBIO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GUFICBIO in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GUFICBIO.

On a general note (since you are interested in GUFICBIO), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are BAJAJFINSV and BAJFINANCE. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.