GTL investors treading cautiously as performance is muted
23 Jan, 201913 min read
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GTL LTD was among the worst performers today. It returned -4.55% to close at 6.3. It's recent 5 day performance has been -4.35%, -1.43%, -1.41%, -4.7% and -3.87%.
GTL is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in GTL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in GTL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
GTL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GTL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 60% days.
During the last three months GTL delivered losses on 72% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +20.0%) was on Thursday, 10 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.0%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 7 Jan, 2019 and went on till 11 Jan, 2019. The bullish trend returned +41.0% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Jan, 2019 and ended on 23 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -25.28% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, GTL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. GTL delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. GTL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -24.72% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GTL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -68.53%. It is interesting to note that both GTL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"My father, being a Scotsman, taught me to look after finances. I'm shrewd. Some people may call me tight.
GTL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GTL's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 2 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GTL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GTL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GTL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GTL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GTL.
On a general note (since you are interested in GTL), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are BAJFINANCE and BAJAJFINSV. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.
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