Don't give up on GREENPOWER now, it gave a fairly good return

GREENPOWER delivered good returns today. On a longer term basis, investors in ORIENT GREEN POWER CO LTD made -0.04% per day. Wednesday's performance of +2.59% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing GREENPOWER]

GREENPOWER showed a flat trend over the last 3 months. During this period GREENPOWER returned 0.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.86%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in GREENPOWER till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

GREENPOWER has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GREENPOWER underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.

During the last three months GREENPOWER delivered losses on 70% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +7.56%) was on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.76%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and went on till 13 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -8.01% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 10 Dec, 2018 and ended on 13 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +10.6% to investors.

On monthly basis, GREENPOWER delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. GREENPOWER delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. GREENPOWER was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -22.17% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GREENPOWER and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both GREENPOWER and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market clearly values companies that can deliver disruptive innovation.
-- Steve Blank

GREENPOWER is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GREENPOWER's volatility from 26 Oct, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GREENPOWER has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GREENPOWER is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GREENPOWER. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GREENPOWER in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GREENPOWER.

On a general note (since you are interested in GREENPOWER), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are ~HOMEAPPLIANCES and NIFTY50-DIV-POINT. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to ~HOMEAPPLIANCES and NIFTY50-DIV-POINT) and diversifying their portfolios.