2891.95 -8.62 (-0.3%) Buy

Don't consider buying GOLDSHARE now, it is risky at the moment

13 min read

UTI GOLD ETF showed weakness on Friday. It lost -0.3% to close at 2891.95. It is currently trading +10% above it's 52 week low of 2625.6 and is down only 0% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing GOLDSHARE]

GOLDSHARE showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period GOLDSHARE grew by +1.17% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.65%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +1.31% to investors.


GOLDSHARE has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GOLDSHARE underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days GOLDSHARE underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months GOLDSHARE was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.02% per day. It's best return during this period (of +1.3%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -1.57%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and went on till 14 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -3.72% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 9 Jan, 2019 and ended on 17 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +2.27% to investors.

GOLDSHARE had 9 profitable and 3 loss making months over the last year. GOLDSHARE was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. GOLDSHARE was also a less risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -4.27% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GOLDSHARE had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered +8.2%. It is interesting to note that both GOLDSHARE and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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GOLDSHARE is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GOLDSHARE's volatility from 12 Nov, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GOLDSHARE has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GOLDSHARE is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GOLDSHARE. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GOLDSHARE in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GOLDSHARE.

On a general note (since you are interested in GOLDSHARE), two instruments that deserve special mention are BAJFINANCE and ~MKTCAP201TO250. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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