GODREJCP investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS showed weakness on Friday. It returned -0.46% to close at 789.65. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
GODREJCP is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +2.37% for GODREJCP's investors in the last three months.
GODREJCP has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 31 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GODREJCP outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days GODREJCP outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
GODREJCP returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.12% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.16%, during this period, on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 17 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +13.54% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 18 Dec, 2018 and ended on 21 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.86% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, GODREJCP delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. GODREJCP delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. GODREJCP was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -20.69% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GODREJCP had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +31.54%.
I made my money the old-fashioned way. I was very nice to a wealthy relative right before he died.
-- Malcolm Forbes
GODREJCP is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GODREJCP's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GODREJCP has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in GODREJCP derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
GODREJCP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, GODREJCP must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GODREJCP.
On a general note (since you are interested in GODREJCP), if you are an investor in SRIPIPES, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.
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