G M BREWERIES LTD

539.6 -2.98 (-0.55%) Sell

GMBREW continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

G M BREWERIES LTD trailed the broader market today. It returned -0.55% to close at 539.6. During the last week it returned -2.98% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.98%.

[Themes containing GMBREW]

GMBREW is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +4.48%) for GMBREW's investors than shorting it.

Trend

GMBREW has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GMBREW underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

During the last three months GMBREW delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +10.77%) was on Monday, 31 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -12.59%) was on Friday, 4 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +17.84% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Jan, 2019 and ended on 9 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -25.15% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, GMBREW delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. GMBREW delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. GMBREW was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jan 2019, returned -29.28% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GMBREW had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered +12.32%.

Money won't create success, the freedom to make it will.
-- Nelson Mandela

GMBREW is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GMBREW's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GMBREW has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GMBREW is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GMBREW. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than GMBREW in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GMBREW.

On a general note (since you are interested in GMBREW), two instruments that deserve special mention are IGARASHI and MERCK. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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