GICHSGFIN investors re-evaluating their investment strategy
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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GICHSGFIN showed weakness today. On a longer term basis, investors in GIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD made +0.09% per day. Friday's performance of -0.6% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
Buy-and-Hold investors in GICHSGFIN experienced a maximum drawdown of -15.7% over the last three months. It increased by +17.71% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +11.02%.
GICHSGFIN has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 15 Jun, 2017 to 4 Dec, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, GICHSGFIN underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.
During the last three months GICHSGFIN delivered losses on 59% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +8.25%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.91%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and ended on 22 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.05% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw GICHSGFIN's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. GICHSGFIN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. GICHSGFIN was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -25.97% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. GICHSGFIN and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both GICHSGFIN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Don't tell me where your priorities are. Show me where you spend your money and I'll tell you what they are.
-- James W. Frick
GICHSGFIN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in GICHSGFIN's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GICHSGFIN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GICHSGFIN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
GICHSGFIN has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, GICHSGFIN must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GICHSGFIN.
Based on your interest in GICHSGFIN you may find it interesting to know that IGARASHI and ~HOMEAPPLIANCES are highly volatile and therefore risky. Investors should consider limiting their exposure to these instruments (because of their volatile nature).
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