FINCABLES continues its fall as more investors loose confidence
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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FINOLEX CABLES LTD underperformed broader market on Friday. It returned -0.33% to close at 446.45 which is it's 52 week low, down -39% from it's 52 week high.
FINCABLES is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +12.46% for investors in the last three months.
FINCABLES has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, FINCABLES outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days FINCABLES outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
FINCABLES returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.2% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.63%, during this period, on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.65% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.54% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, FINCABLES delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. FINCABLES delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. FINCABLES was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -15.22% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. FINCABLES had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -28.94%. It is interesting to note that both FINCABLES and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
All intelligent investing is value investing - acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock .
-- Charles Thomas Munger
FINCABLES is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in FINCABLES's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FINCABLES has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that FINCABLES is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
FINCABLES has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, FINCABLES must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FINCABLES.
On a general note (since you are interested in FINCABLES), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are LTTS, HATSUN and BATAINDIA. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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