41.2 -0.69 (-1.67%) Sell

FCONSUMER is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

FUTURE CONSUMER LIMITED significantly underperformed on Tuesday. It returned -1.67% to close at 41.2. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 85% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

[Themes containing FCONSUMER]

Buy-and-Hold investors in FCONSUMER experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.92% over the last three months. It returned -1.44% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +3.25%.


FCONSUMER has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 26 Dec, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, FCONSUMER outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 42% days. Which indicates that on days FCONSUMER outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months FCONSUMER was mostly loss making and delivered on average 0.0% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.09%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.97%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +18.34% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 15 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.3% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, FCONSUMER delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. FCONSUMER delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. FCONSUMER was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -26.21% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. FCONSUMER had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -18.38%. It is interesting to note that both FCONSUMER and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

When I graduated, I promptly took a job in finance, making both my pre-med and poli-sci years essentially useless - or so I thought.
-- Yael Cohen

FCONSUMER is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in FCONSUMER's volatility from 30 Nov, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FCONSUMER has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that FCONSUMER is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FCONSUMER. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than FCONSUMER in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FCONSUMER.

Based on your interest in FCONSUMER you may find it interesting to know that TORNTPHARM and BAJFINANCE are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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